Lowell 50 goal time

It is time to set a goal for my first race of 2018. 

A few things to keep in mind....

1. I am heavy. (this seems like a given....)

2. I haven't ridden the course

3. I will be on a MTB

4. I haven't raced in a while

With the #1 item being the worst one of the group, this drops my average speed by a substantial amount. Add in the MTB and that drops my speed even more.

Lets say I would start at a middle of the road 15 mph. Not fast, but where I would normally expect to be this time of year....in past years anyway. That would put me just over 2-1/4 hours for the 34 mile course. Solid in my opinion. This would be me in 2015 on a cross/gravel bike.

Now, a few years have passed and I am HEAVY which means I immediately need to take about 2 mph off of the average speed. That means a 13 mph average speed and a finishing time just over 2-1/2 hours. ugh.

Now, factor in that I am on a MTB and I lose even more speed. Lets go with about 1 mph slower. That puts me at 12 mph average speed and a finish time of 2:50:00. Jeez that seems like a shitty number. 

All things considered I will set my goal at 2:45:00 and an average speed of 12.36 mph for this race. Slow I know, but my fastest Barry Roubaix this year was only 11.8, so this seems like a reasonable goal for my current situation.

See you Saturday!